Inflation Economists’ survey – Inflation rate fell to 9.0% in December

Berlin, January 02 – According to economists’ forecasts, the inflation rate in Germany fell significantly at the end of 2022 due to falling energy prices. It is likely to have fallen to 9.0% in December from 10.0% in November, according to the average of economists from 16 banks surveyed by the Reuters news agency. In October, the inflation rate reached 10.4%, its highest level since 1951. The Federal Statistical Office intends to publish on Tuesday afternoon a first estimate of the evolution of consumer prices. consumption in December.

“If inflation has really come down this far, it has less to do with the drag on energy prices than with the significant drop in oil and gasoline prices,” the chief economist said. from ING, Carsten Brzeski. “We won’t see the energy price drag in the data until March.” The state resumed installments for natural gas in December. For private consumers of gas, electricity and district heating, a statutory maximum price for 80% of the previous year’s consumption will also apply from March – this price cap will be credited retrospectively for January and February .

However, experts do not yet give the green light. “In the coming months, inflation may well pick up,” Brzeski said. Many consumers would not face rising gas and electricity prices until January. Food could also become more expensive, since prices in agriculture are often renegotiated in January. “On the other hand, the drop in demand can certainly cause traders to want to get rid of their goods at low prices,” said Brzeski, who expects an average inflation rate of 8.5. % for the first quarter that has just started.

Economist Elmar Völker of Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) does not see any real easing in consumer prices either. In the Spanish Euroland, despite a surprisingly sharp fall in the inflation rate in December, “a very worrying component” could also be observed – namely a continuous increase in underlying inflation, in which the strongly fluctuating prices of energy and food are taken into account. “High inflation in the energy and food sectors is increasingly eating away at the entire price structure,” Völker said. “If this trend is also confirmed for the euro zone as a whole, then the alarm bell should ring again at the ECB, regardless of a possible drop in headline inflation.” The European Central Bank (ECB) tries to curb inflation by raising interest rates.

Economist Survey – Inflation rate down to 9.0% in December

Source: Reuters

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