The 2022 business year is coming to an end. It’s time to take a closer look and scrutinize Bitcoin’s weekly chart. After the key cryptocurrency, like the classic stock market, corrected more significantly, investors are now counting on the year before the next Bitcoin halving, which according to current calculations will be in April 2024 for the next halving of the rewards distributed from 6.25 currently. BTC at 3.125 Bitcoin will provide. Besides a recovery in the global financial markets, it is to be hoped that after the scandals surrounding Terra (LUNA), the bankruptcies of Three Arrows Capital (3AC) and the bankruptcy of the American exchange FTX, the worst could now be over and the crypto market returns to calmer waters.
If the uncertainty surrounding the parent company of the largest Bicoin fund, Grayscale, the Digital Currency Group (DGC), is resolved and the next possible insolvency can be averted, it would again be a positive sign for the crypto space after a long period of drought. . Regardless of the news, in this article we look at possible price targets both lower and higher for the coming months.
Bitcoin is stuck in no man’s land for now
It is positive that Bitcoin has not fallen back to a new all-time low despite setting a new yearly low in the Nasdaq100 Technology Index last Wednesday (Dec. 28). Since FTX’s demise in early November, the price of BTC has traded relentlessly in a range between $15,467 and $18,385. Only when this trading range of around 18 percentage points can be left on a sustainable basis can the next downward or upward price impulse be expected. Whether this current trading range will lead to a further correction or lead to a first low will likely depend not only on how global inflation plays out, but also on how the US dollar and policy the central bank in the USA.
- Bullish price targets: $17,567, $18,112/$18,693, $20,461, $21,047, $21,892, $22,800, $24,280, $25,214, $28,800, $29,880, $31,722, 32,954 $, $37,433/$41.38, $41,481
Bullish price targets for the next 12 months of trading
While the buy side has so far been able to counter any selling by the bearish side, the bulls have also been unable to initiate a sustainable release. More recently, an attempted bull run in mid-December resulted in a false breakout. However, if the bulls manage to pull Bitcoin back into the purple resistance zone in the coming weeks, another false breakout is statistically unlikely. If BTC price breaks above $18,693 and jumps above the 20-week line (EMA20) (red), a further rise to at least $20,461 is to be expected. Even a march through the yellow resistance zone between $21,052 and $21,896 would then be quite likely.
$20,000 as a psychological key mark
However, the weekly chart supertrend also works here, which is why an immediate recovery should be difficult. However, if Bitcoin can stabilize above the $20,000 mark on a weekly basis despite a price rebound and then break through the yellow resistance zone, a rise above $22,800 towards the strong resistance area between 25,280 USD and 25,214 USD is quite possible in the coming years. month. This zone is to be considered as an absolute key zone in the medium term. In addition to the all-time high from August this year, the EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green) also include the EMA50 (orange). Profit taking is therefore very likely here. Bitcoin’s ability to regain this area depends on the factors mentioned, inflation, and central bank policy, among others. A breakthrough beyond this zone is currently not expected before the second half of 2023 at the earliest.
Additional price potential towards 30,000 USD
If the bulls manage to stabilize above, a quick rally towards the orange zone between $28,800 and $29,880 can be expected. The courage of investors should increase significantly given an upward trend in the structure of the markets. However, since the area around USD 30,000 was already very competitive in 2021 and also in 2022, it will be anything but easy for the buyer to break through the orange zone as well. However, if Bitcoin then manages to recover it, the chart picture will continue to brighten.
A march into the blue zone between $31,722 and $32,954 should follow. This means that an important milestone for 2023 has been reached. It remains to be seen at this time if BTC price can retake this strong resistance zone and even reach the bullish price targets of $37,488 and a high of $41,381 or $42,163 by the end of the year. . The probability of this is about 20 percent. For that to happen, the most important stock index, the S&P500, would have to successfully hit the 4,400 point mark or higher.
- Downside targets: $16,206, $15,467, $13,868, $12,492, $11,918, $10,562, $9,501/$8,664
Bearish price targets for the next 12 months of trading
If Bitcoin breaks back below $16,206 in a sustainable manner, a retest of the all-time low at $15,467 is likely. If this important mark of support is undermined by the weekly closing price and selling pressure persists, support in the form of the 2019 high at $13,868 will immediately become the focus of investors’ attention. This mark represents the next possible reversal level on the downside. However, if the counter-move lasts only briefly and the area around USD 15,500 cannot be recovered in the next time frame, the bears will do their utmost to also soften this strong level of support.
Other sales not excluded
If this support is then also dynamically undermined, the sell-off will continue to expand towards USD 12,492. Once again, the bulls will probably want to start stabilizing here. If the US economy also falls into a deep recession in 2023 and inflation does not fall back to a sustainable level either, a direct continuation of the correction to USD 11,918 or lower is quite possible. A violation of this price mark could then drive the Bitcoin price to $10,562. Here, the long side should first ensure a short-term north countermove. The worst case scenario for 2023 would be a return to the gray support zone between $9,501 and $8,664. Given the heterogeneous issues and risks around the world, however, a sell-off in this region of the chart cannot be completely ruled out.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are only an evaluation by the analyst.
The images in the chart were created using TradingView established.
USD/EUR exchange rate at time of writing: 0.95 EUR.
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