- Courses (ETH): $1,568 (previous week: $1,286)
- Short-term resistances/objectives: $1,574, $1,641/$1,654, $1,723, $1,776, $1,825, $1,909, $2,013, $2,089, $2,164, $2,305, $2,448/2,485 $, $2,733, $2,815
- Short-term supports: $1,532, $1,489, $1,425, $1,391/$1,367, $1,320/$1,238, $1,189, $1,062, $992, $935, $882
- The wait is finally over! Over the past two trading days, the price of Ether has risen sharply by 18 percentage points.
- The second largest cryptocurrency was not only able to break out of the previous weeks sideways range between $1,280 and $1,370, but also pulverized the general downtrend line at the cross resistance zone at $1,489. .
- The massive coverage of whales in recent weeks now appears to be paying off. The interest of small investors – around 135,000 new Ethereum addresses were created every day in mid-October alone – is currently having a positive effect on the price development.
- Another reason seems to be the lack of new Ethereum tokens. Since the “merger” of Proof-of-Work (POW) into Proof-of-Stake (POS), there has been an increase in deflationary development in the Ethereum network. According to classical economic theory, an increasing demand for Ethereum with a simultaneous decreasing supply causes prices to rise. This now appears to be true in the development of the Ether course.
- The ongoing price consolidation of the US Dollar Index (DXY) also appears to be positive for the price development of Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market as a whole. As discussed many times in the past, investors should always keep an eye on the development of the US Dollar exchange rate as it shows anti-correlation with its trading pairs.
Looking at the indicators
- Looking at the RSI and MACD indicators, the bullish picture is confirmed in the daily chart. The MACD still has plenty of room to maneuver and should serve as price support. On the other hand, the RSI indicator is now trading in the overbought territory at a reading of 75.
- There is also a bearish divergence in the hourly chart. A temporary “breathing” of the price of ether should therefore come as no surprise. Prices evolve in waves, too strong a rise in too short a period of time may please investors, but is rather counterproductive for a sustained upward trend in prices.
- However, the weekly chart still has plenty of room to go up. Here the MACD already has a first buy signal and the RSI is also back above 45 in the neutral zone. A new long signal only occurs when jumping above 55.
Bullish scenario (Ethereum)
- Ethereum bulls used the breakout from key cryptocurrency Bitcoin and recently pushed Ether price significantly north.
- That Ethereum, after recapturing the all important price mark of $1,425 yesterday, October 25, despite weak quarterly numbers from internet giants Alphabet and Microsoft, was able to break out of the red downtrend line today and also from the golden pocket of the latest trend the move to USD 1,532 seems to break through smoothly is another positive indication.
- Nevertheless, investors should not ignore a possible retest of the downtrend line between $1,489 and $1,425.
- In the past few hours, Ether price reached the 200 EMA in the weekly chart at $1,596, which is why a rebound in price should be expected.
- If Ethereum sustainably rises above the resistance at $1,574 in the direction of the cross resistance at $1,650, the next short-term target area would have been completed. In addition to significant horizontal resistance, the 78 Fibonacci retracement of the last price move also executes here.
- If the buying camp is successful in sending Ethereum north above $1,654 in a timely manner, there is a good chance it will head towards the important resistance level at $1,723. Here, profit taking should be planned first.
- If this mark is also overcome without sustained price pullbacks, and ideally USD 1,776 is approached, the next strong price hurdle is already waiting here with the EMA200 (blue).
- A decline in prices is therefore very likely.
A preliminary decision is approaching
- A preliminary decision can be expected no later than USD 1,825. Here is the trailing edge of August 19 of this year.
- It is only when this resistance level has also been overcome that the chart picture continues to brighten and Ethereum should take off directly towards the blue resistance zone.
- If there is also no dynamic price reversal to the south at $1,909, the bulls will do their utmost to target the all-time high from August 14 at $2,031.
- The bears should be there again to avoid a last minute breakout like in August.
- However, if the bulls win the fight, the recovery move will immediately expand to the $2,089 area.
- This would also put the mid-term target price of $2,164 within reach. The striking low price of January 24, 2022 is taking place here, which should now act as resistance.
- If Ethereum also overcomes this resistance without significant setbacks, the next upside targets will be activated at $2,305 and $2,485.
- If the crypto market continues to be bullish as a result, a direct rise to the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the dominant bearish move at $2,538 is also on the cards.
- Then Ethereum might even start the former tearing edge between $2,733 and $2,815.
- This zone initially represents the maximum price target until the end of the year.
Bearish scenario (Ethereum)
- The bears have fallen further and further behind in recent days. The sell side should try to reverse the situation in its favor as soon as possible.
- A first partial success could be seen in the pullback to $1,489. Ideally, the selling camp greeted the breakout of the bulls by reselling the price of Ether below USD 1,425 all at once.
- If this plan is successful and Ethereum falls back below the downtrend line, a false breakout is in play. It would be confirmed upon a breakout of the $1,389-$1,367 zone.
- Investors then focus on the next relevant target area between $1,320 and $1,283.
- This is where the 23rd Fibonacci retracement of the overall price action takes place. In particular, bulls need to defend the price of $1,283 in order to avoid a move back into the green support zone between $1,263 and $1,223.
The cops better be there
- If this area is undercut with no noticeable resistance from the bulls, and even the $1,189 low does not provide any stability, a relapse towards the former support zone between $1,062 and $999 is increasingly likely. .
- As mentioned several times in the latest Ethereum price analysis, this support zone represents the decisive level on the underside.
- If the bears are successful in selling below the purple support zone, the correction will initially extend to $935.
- However, a direct retest of the yearly low at USD 881 is also possible. Given the strong bullish movement of the last few days, a relapse below the low of the previous year is not to be expected for the moment.
- Investors should use the pullbacks towards the area between $1,489 and $1,425 for buying.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are only an evaluation by the analyst.
The images in the chart were created using TradingView established.
USD/EUR exchange rate at time of writing: 0.99 EUR.
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